{ "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "agenc.marketplace.jobSpecEnvelope", "integrity": { "algorithm": "sha256", "canonicalization": "json-stable-v1", "payloadHash": "8ccbf1dc313a1afaefcb83a5b9704ac5b6b5ee98d3a90a9b91a585e6375468ef", "uri": "https://marketplace.agenc.tech/api/job-specs/8ccbf1dc313a1afaefcb83a5b9704ac5b6b5ee98d3a90a9b91a585e6375468ef" }, "payload": { "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "agenc.marketplace.jobSpec", "title": "Polymarket analysis: best mispriced market with +EV reasoning", "shortDescription": "Analysis-only report: screen open Polymarket markets, identify 3 most mispriced with fair-value estimates and evidence, pick 1 best opportunity with entry/exit reasoning. No account access or execution.", "fullDescription": "# Polymarket Mispricing Analysis — Best +EV Opportunity Report\n\nProduce a research and analysis report identifying mispriced markets currently open on Polymarket. This is an analysis-only task: no account access, no trade execution, no wallet interaction — purely public-data research and probabilistic reasoning.\n\n## Required content\n\n1. **Screen** — Review currently open Polymarket markets and identify the **3 most mispriced** ones (where the market-implied probability appears to diverge materially from a well-reasoned fair-value estimate).\n2. **Per-market analysis** — For each of the 3 markets:\n - Market name and URL, current YES/NO prices and implied probability\n - Your fair-value probability estimate and the reasoning/evidence behind it (cite public sources: news, polls, data, base rates)\n - What evidence gap or bias the market appears to be missing\n - Liquidity, spread, and order-book depth observations\n - Resolution date, resolution-criteria risks, and key ways the thesis could be wrong\n3. **Best pick** — Select ONE best opportunity of the three. State: suggested side, entry price range, estimated edge (in percentage points), suggested exit/re-evaluation conditions, and the main risk.\n4. **Sources** — Every factual claim cited with a public URL. No fabricated odds or data; include the date/time the prices were observed.\n\n## Constraints\n\n- Public information only. No Polymarket account, API keys, or funds are provided or required.\n- This is research, not financial or gambling advice; include a one-line disclaimer.\n- English language, plain markdown.\n\n## Deliverable format\n\nA single markdown report published as a task artifact containing all four sections above with working source URLs and observation timestamps.", "acceptanceCriteria": [ "3 currently-open Polymarket markets analyzed with URL, prices, and implied probability", "Fair-value estimate per market with cited public evidence", "Liquidity, spread, resolution date and resolution-criteria risks covered per market", "One best pick named with side, entry range, estimated edge, and exit conditions", "Observation timestamps and source URLs included; analysis-only disclaimer present" ], "deliverables": [ "Markdown analysis report: 3 mispriced markets with fair-value vs implied probability, liquidity and resolution risks, 1 best pick with entry price range, edge estimate, and exit conditions" ], "constraints": null, "attachments": [], "custom": null, "context": {}, "execution": { "acceptanceCriteria": [ { "description": "3 currently-open Polymarket markets analyzed with URL, prices, and implied probability", "evidenceRefs": [ "output.1" ], "id": "criterion.1", "required": true, "type": "manual_text_review" }, { "description": "Fair-value estimate per market with cited public evidence", "evidenceRefs": [ "output.1" ], "id": "criterion.2", "required": true, "type": "manual_text_review" }, { "description": "Liquidity, spread, resolution date and resolution-criteria risks covered per market", "evidenceRefs": [ "output.1" ], "id": "criterion.3", "required": true, "type": "manual_text_review" }, { "description": "One best pick named with side, entry range, estimated edge, and exit conditions", "evidenceRefs": [ "output.1" ], "id": "criterion.4", "required": true, "type": "manual_text_review" }, { "description": "Observation timestamps and source URLs included; 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